Handout contains information on P/NO-CREDIT, WU, INCOMPLETES, HOW YOU WILL BE GRADED OFFICE HOURS ETC.
You will need:
The Course ID: 62930
Enrollment Key: HunterMath100
You should complete the online homework sets
before each of the midterm exams that will test those topics.
The last Lumen sets are due 10:00AM the day after the
final. Your Lumen account will
expire near the end of December, but I will submit the final grades a few days
after the final. DO NOT ASK FOR AN EXTENSION. You must do the
homework problems before they are examined. This should be obvious. If you have
not done the homework before it is due you are not using the homework
effectively.
The quizzes on Lumen will not be graded, but may be useful practice. There are plenty of
links to videos on Lumen to supplement the lectures.
Be careful how you enter your answers online. Make sure you use { } if the problem asks to enclose the set in brackets.
TEXTBOOK
College Mathematics- Published by Scottsdale Community College.
It is Free and available on the Lumen page for the class.
And a few pages on Tree Diagrams
Here are some problems from the textbook. They are for your edification - they will not be graded. Some of the exam
problems may be modeled on these questions.
Problems from Textbook.
Here are some practice exams. The actual exams will have multiple choice questions.
Here are some articles that appeared in the NY Times. One goal of the course is for you to be able to make sense of articles you may read that make use of probability. I suggest you check these out. If one of the articles seems interesting we can discuss it in class (after we developed the technology necessary to analyze the numbers).
News articles
1- Article on conspiracy theories
2- Chart showing how cancer compares with other causes of death at various ages (NY times July 2, 2002). It is correct to say that 1 in 8 women will bevelop breast cancer in her lifetime? How does this compare with the chart? What kind of probabilities are these numbers?
3- Table of number of people waiting for transplants and number who died waiting. Interpret these numbers in terms of conditional probabilities.
4- Article on effect of Cancer Support groups on survival from NY Times 12/13/2001. Interpret these numbers.
5- Article questioning effect of Mammography on survival from NY Times 12/9/2001. How do you react to these numbers?
6- From a review of "The Colossal Book of
Mathematics" by Martin Gardner If you have trouble following this
try drawing a tree diagram or
click
here
7- Article on overall risk of catastrophic failure
of Shuttle; New York Times 12/4/1993
Question: What is the
probability of at least one failure in 50 flights? in 100 flights?
8- Article on risk of breast cancer in L.I. women.
New York Times, April 13, 1994
Some
questions related to this article
9- Article on gene linked to Colon Cancer, NY
times Dec. 3, 1993
Some questions related to this article
10- New York Times, 9/6/2000 article on Firestone
tires
Some natural questions: Identify the data in terms of conditional
probability
Can one calculate the probability of a fatal accident?
11- Article on Tamoxifen and endometrial cancers,
NY times 9/8/00.
Can one deduce the probability that a women
who had breast cancer and takes tamoxifen developes endometrial cancer?
12- Article from NY Times, 9/27/2000 From an article on Income and Poverty. The NY Times understands the difference between the median and average.
13- Article on Nuclear Wepons
What "calculation" did the the officials at the Strategic Air Command
make that led them to target one facility with 69 nuclear missiles?
14-Graph from Feb. 20, 2001
A graph of "Dangerous drivers and the age spectrum" It may be
instructive to interpert this as a Histogram.
15- Article on Raloxifene and Breast Cancer from
Feb. 26 issue of Breast Cancer Research and Treatment
What type of probability are these numbers? Could one compute the
probability a woman with osteoporosis from the general population will
contract Breast Cancer?
16- Some census data from March 6 2001 NY
Times
Explain these numbers in terms of probabilities.
An article from the April 28 edition of the NY times on Bayes' theorem
and life. Interesting examples of applications of Bayes theorem as well as
the controversy about its use.
17-Adding art to the
Rigor of Statistical Science
18- An article from the June 8, 2004 edition of the NY times on the "Fat Epidemic". An example of how statistics can present data in two ways which seem to contradict each other.
19-A study reported in the NY times "Aspirin is
seen as preventing breast tumors"
I marked the data with ******.
About half the women in the study had breast cancer. Can you
determine the probability a woman in the study has breast cancer if she takes
aspirin? If she does not take aspirin?
20- NY times 12/12/2009
Application of Bayes' theorem to the mammogram controversy. The
argument is exactly the same as the one for TB testing covered in
class.
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Lastt day of class, Tuesday 12/13/2022
Final Exam: Friday 12/16/2022, 11:30-1:30
